Natalia
There’s a lot of chatter about the 2026 Social Security COLA—including claims that it will be the “largest increase yet.” That’s not what the latest data shows.
Based on July inflation readings and early forecasts, the 2026 COLA is currently projected around 2.7%, a modest bump above 2025’s 2.5%, not a record increase.
(For context, the largest recent COLA was 8.7% for 2023 benefits.) The official 2026 COLA will be set in October 2025 after the government publishes September inflation data.
Below is a clear, up-to-date guide—grounded in current CPI-W data and trusted forecasts—so you can estimate your 2026 payment, understand the timeline, and see how Medicare Part B premiums may affect your net increase.
Quick take
- Projected 2026 COLA: ~2.7% (final figure comes in October 2025).
- Why 2.7%? Inflation (measured by CPI-W) has been running a bit hotter in mid-2025; July’s CPI-W was up ~2.5% year over year. COLA is based on Q3 CPI-W (July–September) versus the same quarter a year earlier.
- Largest increase yet? No. Recent COLA history shows far bigger hikes (e.g., 8.7% for 2023).
- Medicare Part B impact: The standard Part B premium is projected to rise from $185.00 in 2025 to $206.50 in 2026 (up $21.50), which can eat into your COLA at the check level.
How the 2026 COLA is calculated
Social Security’s Cost-of-Living Adjustment is determined by comparing the average CPI-W for July–September 2025 with the average CPI-W for July–September 2024.
The percentage change—rounded to the nearest tenth—becomes the COLA applied to December 2025 benefits, paid in January 2026. (SSI reflects it a bit earlier; see dates below.)
- CPI-W status: July 2025 CPI-W was 316.349, up about 2.5% from the prior Q3 baseline (308.729). August and September 2025 will complete the official calculation.
- Forecasts so far: Independent trackers (e.g., TSCL) and major outlets currently coalesce around ~2.7% for 2026.
What a ~2.7% COLA could mean in dollars
The SSA’s 2025 fact sheet pegs the average retired worker’s benefit at $1,976 (January 2025). Applying a 2.7% increase would lift that to about $2,029—a $53 monthly bump—before considering any Medicare premium changes. (Your figure will vary based on your personal benefit.)
Projected 2026 amounts (illustrative)
Assumes a 2.7% COLA applied to common 2025 average amounts. “Net after Part B” shows the effect if you pay the projected standard Part B increase (+$21.50/month).
For couples where both are on Medicare, the Part B increase would typically be $43 total.
| Beneficiary type (monthly) | 2025 avg/base | 2026 projected (gross) | $ Increase | Est. net after Part B* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All retired workers | $1,976 | $2,029.35 | +$53.35 | +$31.85 |
| Aged couple, both receiving | $3,089 | $3,172.40 | +$83.40 | +$40.40 (assumes two Part B premiums) |
| Disabled worker | $1,580 | $1,622.66 | +$42.66 | +$21.16 |
| Aged widow(er) alone | $1,832 | $1,881.46 | +$49.46 | +$27.96 |
| Disabled worker, spouse & child | $2,826 | $2,902.30 | +$76.30 | +$54.80 |
| Widowed mother + two children | $3,761 | $3,862.55 | +$101.55 | +$80.05 |
*Net column illustrates the effect of the projected Part B premium increase only.
Your actual net change can differ based on IRMAA surcharges, other deductions, or if you’re not enrolled in Part B.
Base figures reference SSA’s 2025 COLA fact sheet; 2026 values are projections pending the official October announcement.
What about the maximum benefit and SSI?
- Maximum benefit at Full Retirement Age (FRA): The 2025 maximum at FRA is $4,018/month. A 2.7% bump would put a projected 2026 max near $4,126 at FRA. (The maximum at age 70 is higher due to delayed credits.) Final 2026 maximums post in the fall SSA updates.
- SSI Federal Payment Standard (2025): $967 (individual) and $1,450 (couple). With a 2.7% COLA, the projected 2026 amounts would be roughly $993 (individual) and $1,489 (couple), with final rounding rules applied by SSA.
Key dates: when you’ll see the 2026 COLA
- Official COLA announcement: October 2025 (after September inflation is published).
- SSI recipients: The first payment reflecting the 2026 COLA arrives December 31, 2025 (since Jan 1 is a federal holiday, SSI pays early).
- Social Security retirement/SSDI: Checks reflecting the new COLA arrive with January 2026 benefits. Payment timing follows the usual schedule:
- If you’ve received benefits since before May 1997 (or you receive both Social Security and SSI), you’re scheduled on the 3rd of the month; because Jan 3, 2026 is a Saturday, payment should arrive Friday, Jan 2, 2026.
- Otherwise, payments are on the second, third, and fourth Wednesdays based on your birth date (Jan 14, 21, 28 in 2026). Check SSA’s 2026 calendar for your exact dates.
Why “largest increase yet” is misleading
The headline sounds exciting, but the historical record says otherwise. In recent years, COLA was 5.9% (2022), 8.7% (2023), 3.2% (2024), and 2.5% (2025).
A ~2.7% 2026 COLA would be modest by comparison—helpful, but nowhere near a modern record.
How to estimate your 2026 benefit (in 30 seconds)
- Find your current gross benefit (the amount before Medicare or tax withholding).
- Multiply by 1.027 (assuming the current consensus projection).
- If you pay Medicare Part B, subtract the projected premium increase ($21.50).
- Adjust for any IRMAA surcharges if your income triggers them (projections indicate minor IRMAA changes).
Example: A retired worker with $2,000/month gross in 2025 would project to $2,054 in 2026 (+ $54). If enrolled in Part B, the net change after the projected premium increase would be about +$32.
Will rising Medicare costs offset the COLA?
Possibly. The latest Medicare Trustees projections suggest the standard Part B premium could jump to $206.50 in 2026 (+$21.50).
For many retirees, that will trim roughly 40% of the gross COLA raise for an average retiree. Those with higher incomes may also owe IRMAA surcharges.
The final Part B premium posts later this fall, typically after the COLA announcement.
What else could change in 2026?
- Payment schedule: The day-of-week pattern continues (3rd of the month for certain legacy/SSI-combo cases; otherwise the second/third/fourth Wednesdays based on birth date). SSA publishes the 2026 calendar to help you plan.
- Average check levels: SSA’s Monthly Statistical Snapshot shows average benefit amounts inch up during the year as new retirees file; January figures are a good baseline, but your own check may differ by the time January 2026 arrives.
Bottom line
A 2026 Social Security COLA around 2.7% is likely, though the official number arrives in October 2025.
That’s a modest raise—useful, but not a record—and some of it may be offset by higher Medicare Part B premiums.
To plan, multiply your current gross benefit by 1.027, then consider the projected Part B increase and any IRMAA.
Watch for SSA’s announcement in October and the updated payment calendar for exact 2026 dates.
FAQs
In October 2025. The SSA releases the COLA each fall after September CPI-W is published.